UFC 131 – Junior Dos Santos vs. Shane Carwin Prediction

SHANE CARWIN vs. JUNIOR DOS SANTOS

Fight Overview:  Junior dos Santos, fresh off his stint as a coch on The Ultimate Fighter, steps up against late replacement and former title challenger Shane Carwin in a huge Heavyweight showdown.  Carwin is very well-rounded, with heavy hands and dominant wrestling, but dos Santos’ striking is some of the best in the world, so this should be a very compelling matchup.

Carwin’s Strengths:  Carwin has extremely heavy hands and a willingness to let them go along with dominant takedowns and a great ability to deal damage from top position.

Carwin’s Weaknesses:  He has been struggling with back injuries since fighting Lesnar, which could hurt his ability to secure takedowns.  He also has questionable cardio and he tends to rely far more on his striking than his wrestling, which could be disastrous.

dos Santos’ Strengths:  dos Santos has arguably the best striking in the division.  He is technically amazing, with great hand speed and accuracy, and he packs a wallop with his punches, kicks and knees.

dos Santos’ Weaknesses:  His takedown defense, chin, offensive wrestling, and submission defense are all question marks.  He has never had his chin or defensive wrestling tested the way Carwin is capable of testing him.

The Verdict:  This is a tough fight to call for a number of reasons.  Carwin has a skill set that dos Santos has never had to deal with, especially in terms of top-notch wrestling, but he tends to rely too much on standing and banging.  Against dos Santos, he absolutely will not win the striking exchanges or last very long.  If his back injuries or his own choices keep him from taking this fight down right out of the gate, he is going to get lit up badly from the get-go.  He is a tough guy with a solid chin, so he might be able to take the punches for a while, but eventually the accumulation of punishment and his questionable cardio are going to spell disaster for him.  dos Santos by T/KO.