UFC 127 – BJ Penn vs. Jon Fitch Prediction

B.J. PENN vs. JON FITCH

Fight Overview:  Penn is looking to put together a second run at the Welterweight Title after his win over Matt Hughes, but he has to make it through clear #1 contender Jon Fitch first.  This is a clash of styles, sizes, and personalities, so it has the makings of a really interesting fight.

Penn’s Strengths:  Penn has excellent boxing with good punching power even at 170 pounds, world-class takedown defense, and some of the best jiu-jitsu in the sport.

Penn’s Weaknesses:  Penn’s motivation and cardio conditioning are always a question mark.  He is also going to be giving up a lot of size and strength to Fitch.

Fitch’s Strengths:  Fitch has solid technical boxing.  He also has solid clinch work, takedowns, ground and pound, and positional control.

Fitch’s Weaknesses:  He is not a finisher, and is going to be substantially slower to the punch than Penn.  He has also never had to fight anyone with Penn’s submission prowess.

The Verdict:  I think that Penn is a great underdog option.  Fitch is not going to finish him, and the only way Fitch can win this fight is by clinching Penn, dragging him down, and working him from top position.  Penn will win the striking exchanges, and he is a threat to finish anyone off his back or from any other position on the ground.  Fitch’s size advantage is going to create problems for him, but I think BJ can win enough striking exchanges and do enough  off his back to earn the decision win in a three-round fight.