UFC 128 – Shogun Rua vs. Jon Jones Prediction
JON JONES vs. MAURICIO “Shogun” RUA
Fight Overview: Jon Jones, the Light Heavyweight division’s rising star, gets an early shot at the title many have long felt he was destined to win as he steps up to replace injured teammate Rashad Evans against champion Mauricio “Shogun” Rua. Rua is the best 205 pound fighter in the world, but Jones is a different breed physically, so this should be a barn burner.
Jones’ Strengths: Jones has ridiculous reach, is a huge guy, has great takedowns from a distance and in the clinch, great power punching, very effective submissions, and some of the most devastating ground and pound the sport has ever seen.
Jones’ Weaknesses: This is a major step up in competition for him, he is taking the fight on only 6 weeks’ notice, and he has never faced anyone with striking even close to Shogun’s level before.
Shogun’s Strengths: Shogun is one of the most devastating and aggressive strikers ever, and can destroy guys from range and in the clinch. He also has very underrated wrestling and jiu-jitsu.
Shogun’s Weaknesses: He may have good jiu-jitsu but he does not want any part of the ground game with Jones. Also, some of his best striking is from the clinch, another extremely unattractive place to be against Jones.
The Verdict: Shogun has proven for years that he is the man at 205 pounds, a brief injury-riddled stint aside. His striking is the best in the division, and light years beyond anything Jones has had to deal with. On the other hand, Jones is going to have a humongous size and reach advantage, and will be by far the physically stronger of the two. So far, no one Jones has fought has been able to prevent him from ragdolling them, and the fact that he can land destructive power punches from about halfway across the octagon thanks to his reach cannot be underestimated. Shogun is the better striker, but Jones has the same ability to end the fight with one punch, and he can do it from a long way out. More importantly, though, is the fact that Jones’ massive size, strength advantage, and prowess at clinch throwing is going to neutralize one of the most effective aspects of Shogun’s game, his Muay Thai from the clinch. If he tries to close the distance with Jones he is going to get launched in the air and wind up underneath Jones eating vicious elbows. If he tries to stay at range and pick his shots he is going to have to defend the takedown and deal with Jones’ superior reach. Shogun is probably still the better fighter overall, but I don’t think he can handle Jones’ superior physicality, reach, size, and strength. Eventually Shogun will wind up on his back with Jones on top of him, and from there there isn’t much anyone can do. Jones will overwhelm the champion with strikes from top position and force the stoppage. Jones by T/KO.
Fight Prediction: Jon Jones by third round TKO.
