UFC Fight Night 24 – Antonio Nogueira vs. Phil Davis Prediction

PHIL DAVIS vs. ANTONIO ROGERIO NOGUEIRA

Fight Overview:  PRIDE veteran Little Nog looks to get back to his previous form after a series of underwhelming performances, but standing in his way is undefeated prospect Phil Davis.  Nog is a big step up for Davis, but Davis has the physical attributes and style that have given Noguiera fits in the past, so this is a compelling fight that will say a lot about where Davis stands as of now.

Davis’ Strengths:  Davis has great wrestling, great physical strength, good ground and pound, good submissions, and heavy-handed striking.

Davis’ Weaknesses:  Noguiera is by far the most well-rounded and dangerous fighter he has ever had to face.

Nogueira’s Strengths:  Nogueira has excellent technical boxing and world-class jiu-jitsu, not to mention a wealth of experience against top opponents

Nogueira’s Weaknesses:  He is not very strong physically and has shown difficulty dealing with dominant wrestlers, something Davis definitely is.

The Verdict:  I think this fight is going to look a lot like Noguiera’s fight with Ryan Bader, since Davis is sort of a more dangerous version of Bader.  Nogueira is the superior striker technically, but Davis’ superior power is going to make him fight more defensively.  Most importantly, Davis’ dominant wrestling is going to give Noguiera fits and Davis has enough submission defense to hold Noguiera off from top position.  I expect Davis to control this one and hand Nogueira another loss by unanimous decision.

Fight Prediction:  Phil Davis by Unanimous Decision.

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